Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in April 2026?
KXCPI-26APR-T0.5 · closes May 12, 2026 · 29 days remaining
Price
Last
70¢
Bid
70¢
Ask
73¢
Spread
3¢
24h Volume
$1,757.63
Open Interest
$9,159.84
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 541.5% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 2948.3% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 2 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | -2.000 | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 6.5% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 318% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 1.16 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 1.7/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 2948% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | -5.24 (1d to event) | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
146 indicator snapshots · 3 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.512
Label
neutral
Spread
3¢
Computed
4/13/2026, 3:11:23 PM
About this market
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.5% (single-decimal) in April 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXCPI-26APR-T0.5 yes 100