Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in July 2026?
KXCPI-26JUL-T0.4 · closes Aug 12, 2026 · 121 days remaining
Price
Last
38¢
Bid
32¢
Ask
38¢
Spread
6¢
24h Volume
$36
Open Interest
$724
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 642.2% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 142.2% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 2 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | 10.000 | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 2.7% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | — | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | — | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | — | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 321% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
99 indicator snapshots · 3 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.625
Label
taker
Spread
6¢
Computed
4/13/2026, 6:00:36 PM
About this market
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 0.4% (single-decimal) in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXCPI-26JUL-T0.4 yes 100