Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.8% for the year ending in April 2026?
KXCPIYOY-26APR-T3.8 · closes May 12, 2026 · 29 days remaining
Price
Last
38¢
Bid
38¢
Ask
40¢
Spread
2¢
24h Volume
$2,037.85
Open Interest
$2,959.85
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 2065.1% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 775.8% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 2 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 4.9% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 702% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 1.14 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 1.0/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 2065% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | -5.27 (1d to event) | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
171 indicator snapshots · 3 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.568
Label
neutral
Spread
2¢
Computed
4/13/2026, 4:33:34 PM
About this market
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 3.8% in the twelve months ending April 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXCPIYOY-26APR-T3.8 yes 100