Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.0% for the year ending in April 2026?
KXCPIYOY-26APR-T4.0 · closes May 12, 2026 · 29 days remaining
Price
Last
14¢
Bid
14¢
Ask
16¢
Spread
2¢
24h Volume
$754.6
Open Interest
$1,791
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 7201.0% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 224.3% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 6 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 5.0% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 1707% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 1.04 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 1.0/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 7201% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | -5.36 (1d to event) | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
142 indicator snapshots · 3 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.568
Label
neutral
Spread
2¢
Computed
4/13/2026, 7:11:01 PM
About this market
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 4.0% in the twelve months ending April 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXCPIYOY-26APR-T4.0 yes 100