Manchester City wins by over 1.5 goals?
KXEPLSPREAD-26APR19MCIARS-MCI1 · closes May 3, 2026 · 20 days remaining
Price
Last
29¢
Bid
28¢
Ask
29¢
Spread
1¢
24h Volume
$1,468
Open Interest
$1,332
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 4701.6% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 711.0% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 3 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | -0.6% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 1011% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 0.90 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 0.8/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 4702% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
107 indicator snapshots · 4 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.5
Label
neutral
Spread
1¢
Computed
4/13/2026, 4:35:44 PM
About this market
If Manchester City wins by more than 1.5 goals in the Manchester City vs Arsenal professional EPL soccer game originally scheduled for Apr 19, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXEPLSPREAD-26APR19MCIARS-MCI1 yes 100