Will ETH trimmed mean be above $2500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 36% probability that Will ETH trimmed mean be above $2500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026?. This contract trades at 36¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026. The market is pricing a 50-50 coin flip for ETH reaching $2,500 by late April 2026, but the extraordinarily high implied yield of 2,591% signals severe illiquidity with only $2,435 in 24-hour volume against $49,656 open interest.
Analysis
The market is pricing a 50-50 coin flip for ETH reaching $2,500 by late April 2026, but the extraordinarily high implied yield of 2,591% signals severe illiquidity with only $2,435 in 24-hour volume against $49,656 open interest. The 1-cent spread and neutral regime with moderate realized volatility (2,269%) suggest the market may be mispriced due to thin liquidity rather than genuine uncertainty, making this a high-risk venue for position-taking with just 14 days to expiry.
Resolution rules
If the price of ETH after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026 is ever above $2500.00, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Regime
Trade
sf trade KXETHMAXMON-ETH-26APR30-250000 yes 100