Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?
KXFED-26DEC-T3.25 · closes Dec 9, 2026 · 240 days remaining
Price
Last
45¢
Bid
44¢
Ask
45¢
Spread
1¢
24h Volume
$11
Open Interest
$2,449
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 193.5% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 119.4% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 1 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | 18.000 | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 1.3% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 223% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 1.41 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 0.3/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 193% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | +1.14 (23d to event) | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
150 indicator snapshots · 3 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.577
Label
neutral
Spread
1¢
Computed
4/13/2026, 4:27:59 PM
About this market
If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 3.25% following the Federal Reserve's Dec 9, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXFED-26DEC-T3.25 yes 100