Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?
KXFED-26DEC-T4.25 · closes Dec 9, 2026 · 240 days remaining
Price
Last
6¢
Bid
7¢
Ask
13¢
Spread
6¢
24h Volume
$0
Open Interest
$419
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 2019.7% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 11.4% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 13 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 1.3% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 3848% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 4.02 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 0.5/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 2020% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | +3.74 (23d to event) | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
61 indicator snapshots · 4 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.5
Label
neutral
Spread
6¢
Computed
4/13/2026, 4:27:57 PM
About this market
If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 4.25% following the Federal Reserve's Dec 9, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXFED-26DEC-T4.25 yes 100