Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting?
KXFED-26JUL-T4.00 · closes Jul 29, 2026 · 107 days remaining
Price
Last
9¢
Bid
6¢
Ask
10¢
Spread
4¢
24h Volume
$50
Open Interest
$1,337
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 5341.0% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 21.8% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 16 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | 24.000 | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 2.5% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | — | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | — | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | — | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 2671% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
16 indicator snapshots · 3 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.625
Label
taker
Spread
4¢
Computed
4/13/2026, 4:31:14 PM
About this market
If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 4.00% following the Federal Reserve's Jul 29, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXFED-26JUL-T4.00 yes 100