Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?
KXFED-27JAN-T4.00 · closes Jan 27, 2027 · 289 days remaining
Price
Last
18¢
Bid
9¢
Ask
18¢
Spread
9¢
24h Volume
$40
Open Interest
$142
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 1276.5% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 12.5% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 10 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | 10.000 | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 10.0% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 1803% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 4.69 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 0.7/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 1277% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | +4.42 (23d to event) | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
34 indicator snapshots · 3 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.635
Label
taker
Spread
9¢
Computed
4/13/2026, 4:29:34 PM
About this market
If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 4.00% following the Federal Reserve's Jan 27, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXFED-27JAN-T4.00 yes 100