Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their June 2026 meeting?
KXFEDDECISION-26JUN-C25 · closes Jun 17, 2026 · 65 days remaining
Price
Last
7¢
Bid
4¢
Ask
7¢
Spread
3¢
24h Volume
$8,743.32
Open Interest
$236,407.17
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 13463.3% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 23.4% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 24 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | -0.1% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.50 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 3115% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 3.83 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 1.0/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 6732% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | +3.55 (23d to event) | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
79 indicator snapshots · 33 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.5
Label
neutral
Spread
—¢
Computed
4/13/2026, 4:31:10 PM
About this market
If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on June 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXFEDDECISION-26JUN-C25 yes 100