Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their September 2027 meeting?
KXFEDDECISION-27SEP-C25 · closes Sep 15, 2027 · 520 days remaining
Price
Last
16¢
Bid
16¢
Ask
26¢
Spread
10¢
24h Volume
$0
Open Interest
$160
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 368.4% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 13.4% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 5 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | -0.1% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 681% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 3.65 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 0.5/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 368% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | +3.37 (23d to event) | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
46 indicator snapshots · 3 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.409
Label
neutral
Spread
10¢
Computed
4/13/2026, 3:11:20 PM
About this market
If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on September 15, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXFEDDECISION-27SEP-C25 yes 100