Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will Jerome Powell be Chair of the Federal Open Market Committee (including in acting capacity) on Jun 17, 2026?"?

Accepted Answer

This prediction market is currently priced at 34¢ (34% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on June 17, 2026. 57 days remaining.

Question 2

What is the implied yield on "Will Jerome Powell be Chair of the Federal Open Market Committee (including in acting capacity) on Jun 17, 2026?"?

Accepted Answer

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1366.9% and 302.7% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Question 3

Where can I trade "Will Jerome Powell be Chair of the Federal Open Market Committee (including in acting capacity) on Jun 17, 2026?"?

Accepted Answer

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1366.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	302.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	683%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
EE	41.000	Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes

Will Jerome Powell be Chair of the Federal Open Market Committee (including in acting capacity) on Jun 17, 2026?

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