Will Powell say Yield Curve at his Apr 2026 press conference?
KXFEDMENTION-26APR-YIEL · closes Apr 30, 2026 · 17 days remaining
Price
Last
9¢
Bid
8¢
Ask
9¢
Spread
1¢
24h Volume
$151.43
Open Interest
$1,543.84
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 21985.9% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 215.1% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 10 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 18.6% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 683% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 0.44 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 0.3/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 21986% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
29 indicator snapshots · 5 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.5
Label
neutral
Spread
1¢
Computed
4/13/2026, 7:10:20 PM
About this market
If the Chair of the Federal Reserve says Yield Curve at his Apr 2026 post-FOMC meeting introductory remarks and Q+A, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXFEDMENTION-26APR-YIEL yes 100