How many Gold Cards will Trump sell this year?
Prediction markets currently give a 90% probability that How many Gold Cards will Trump sell this year?. This contract trades at 90¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026. This market is pricing in an extremely high probability (93%) that Trump will not issue any gold cards by May 1, 2026, yet the No side offers a staggering 33,312% implied yield, suggesting severe mispricing or structural issues.
Analysis
This market is pricing in an extremely high probability (93%) that Trump will not issue any gold cards by May 1, 2026, yet the No side offers a staggering 33,312% implied yield, suggesting severe mispricing or structural issues. The sharp divergence between the 188.7% Yes yield and the astronomical No yield, combined with a Cliff Risk Index of 13 and only $312.37 in 24-hour volume against $155k open interest, indicates low liquidity and potential difficulty exiting positions. With just 15 days to expiry and the price already at 93¢, this market appears to be pricing near-certainty in the resolution criteria, though the vague definition of "gold cards" and the extreme yield asymmetry warrant caution about the true underlying probability.
Resolution rules
If, before May 1, 2026, exactly 0 "gold cards" are issued by the federal government, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGOLDCARDS-26-B0.0 yes 100