Will Kingdom Hearts 4 release this year
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 38% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
38%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$872
6 contracts
Closes
Jan 2, 2027
191 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Squadron 42 release this year
Will Squadron 42 release this year?: Squadron 42
KXGAMERELEASE-26-SQU
Cluster 2
Will Half-Life 3 release this year
Will Half-Life 3 release this year?: Half-Life 3
KXGAMERELEASE-26-HALF
Cluster 3
Will Halo: Campaign Evolved release this year
Will Halo: Campaign Evolved release this year?: Halo: Campaign Evolved
KXGAMERELEASE-26-HAL
Cluster 4
Will Marvel's Wolverine release this year
Will Marvel's Wolverine release this year?: Wolverine
KXGAMERELEASE-26-WOL
Cluster 5
Will Kingdom Hearts 4 release this year
Will Kingdom Hearts 4 release this year?: Kingdom Hearts 4
KXGAMERELEASE-26-KIN
Cluster 6
Will Light No Fire release this year
Will Light No Fire release this year?: Light No Fire
KXGAMERELEASE-26-LIG
Analysis
A 32% probability means traders estimate roughly one-in-three odds that Kingdom Hearts 4 will launch before year-end 2026. The game was announced in 2022 but has had minimal public updates since then, which suppresses expectations compared to franchises with active development communication. The probability could shift significantly based on upcoming gaming industry announcements—particularly any reveals at major events like Summer Game Fest (typically June) or industry showcases where Square Enix might provide release timeline clarity. Historical Kingdom Hearts release patterns show multi-year development cycles, and the lack of a confirmed 2026 window in official communications keeps the market probability relatively cautious. A concrete release date announcement would be the primary uncertainty resolver, as would any official statement pushing the launch beyond 2026.
- ›No official 2026 release date has been announced by Square Enix as of May 2026
- ›The last significant Kingdom Hearts 4 update occurred in 2022; minimal public communication about development progress or timeline in recent years
- ›Kingdom Hearts games historically require 3-5 year development cycles; typical pre-release marketing campaigns begin 6-12 months before launch
- ›Major gaming industry events (Summer Game Fest, Tokyo Game Show, PlayStation/Xbox showcases) are scheduled through fall 2026 and would be natural venues for release date announcements
- ›Previous Kingdom Hearts mainline releases (KH3 in 2019, KH Re:Chain of Memories in 2004) all had substantial marketing visibility within 12 months of launch
What moved the line
- Jun 19Squadron 42↑5pp13→18¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Half-Life 3↓5pp22→17¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Half-Life 3↓5pp17→12¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Squadron 42↑4pp18→22¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Squadron 42↑3pp10→13¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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