Will Kingdom Hearts 4 release this year
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 42% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
42%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$9
7 contracts
Closes
Jan 2, 2027
103 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Grand Theft Auto VI release this year
Will Grand Theft Auto VI release this year?: Grand Theft Auto VI
KXGAMERELEASE-26-GTA
Cluster 2
Will Squadron 42 release this year
Will Squadron 42 release this year?: Squadron 42
KXGAMERELEASE-26-SQU
Cluster 3
Will Light No Fire release this year
Will Light No Fire release this year?: Light No Fire
KXGAMERELEASE-26-LIG
Cluster 4
Will Phantom Blade Zero release this year
Will Phantom Blade Zero release this year?: Phantom Blade Zero
KXGAMERELEASE-26-PHA
Cluster 5
Will The Duskbloods release this year
Will The Duskbloods release this year?: The Duskbloods
KXGAMERELEASE-26-DUS
Cluster 6
Will Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4 release this year
Will Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4 release this year?: Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4
KXGAMERELEASE-26-CALL
Cluster 7
Will Iron Man release this year
Will Iron Man release this year?: Iron Man
KXGAMERELEASE-26-IRO
Analysis
The current 25% probability reflects market expectations that Kingdom Hearts 4 will not release before 2026 ends, with approximately five months remaining. Square Enix has not announced a firm release date, and the franchise typically experiences long development cycles between entries. The probability would likely increase if an official 2026 release date were announced, or decrease if the company confirms a 2027+ launch window. The key catalyst would be any official announcement from Square Enix regarding launch timing. Currently, the thin trading volume ($13 in 24-hour activity) suggests limited market confidence in either direction, indicating substantial uncertainty about the company's development timeline.
- ›No official 2026 release date has been announced by Square Enix as of mid-July 2026
- ›Kingdom Hearts games historically require 4-6 years between mainline releases; Kingdom Hearts 3 launched in January 2019
- ›Square Enix's development pipeline and public statements about Kingdom Hearts 4's progress status
- ›Typical AAA game announcements precede release by 6-12 months; with five months left in 2026, lack of marketing campaign suggests lower probability
- ›Low trading volume ($13/24h) indicates minimal market conviction and potential information asymmetry among traders
What moved the line
- Sep 17Phantom Blade Zero↑59pp32→91¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17The Duskbloods↓49pp57→8¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19The Duskbloods↓23pp28→5¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18The Duskbloods↑20pp8→28¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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