How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030

Analysis

This probability reflects the likelihood that atmospheric CO2 will reach or exceed a specific threshold before the end of 2029. Current CO2 levels are approximately 425 ppm and rising roughly 2-3 ppm annually due to ongoing fossil fuel consumption and industrial emissions. The 39% aggregated probability suggests meaningful uncertainty about whether the trend will accelerate, stabilize, or be affected by policy changes or economic shifts. The sharp 31-point disagreement between venues indicates traders assess different likelihoods for either continued emissions growth or unexpected mitigation. Key near-term catalysts include updated atmospheric measurements from the Keeling Curve and NOAA, which provide quarterly data that refine projections. The resolution hinges on actual December 2029 measurements against the contract threshold.

• ›Current global CO2 annual emission rate (~37 Gt CO2/year) and whether 2026-2029 shows acceleration or deceleration relative to historical trends
• ›Policy implementation impact, particularly from major emitters (China, US, India) on industrial emissions and whether pledges translate to measurable reductions by 2029
• ›Natural climate variability and ocean uptake rates, which affect what percentage of emitted CO2 actually accumulates in the atmosphere each year
• ›Quarterly NOAA/Scripps CO2 measurement releases through 2029, which will narrow projection confidence intervals and resolve contract uncertainty
• ›Economic recession or energy demand shocks between now and 2029 that could suppress fossil fuel consumption independent of policy

Contracts