How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030
Leader sits at 78% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 22%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
At least 440
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
22¢
At least 445
Spread
56pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2030
1227 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030
How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?: At least 440
KXCO2LEVEL-30-440
How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?: At least 455
KXCO2LEVEL-30-455
How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?: At least 450
KXCO2LEVEL-30-450
How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?: At least 445
KXCO2LEVEL-30-445
Analysis
This probability reflects the market's assessment that atmospheric CO2 will reach at least 440 ppm before the end of 2029. Current CO2 levels stand near 425 ppm, meaning a rise of roughly 15 ppm in approximately 3.5 years would be required. The trajectory depends on two primary factors: global emission trends and natural carbon cycle dynamics. Recent years have seen CO2 rise approximately 2-2.5 ppm annually, though this rate fluctuates with economic activity and weather patterns. An 80% probability suggests markets expect continued emissions growth or stable/increasing atmospheric concentrations. The key uncertainty driver is whether global emissions will accelerate, stabilize, or begin declining—outcomes influenced by policy implementation, industrial activity, and renewable energy adoption. Actual atmospheric measurements, released monthly by organizations like NOAA, will determine whether this threshold is crossed before 2030.
- ›Global CO2 emission rates in 2026-2029 relative to historical 2-2.5 ppm annual growth trajectory
- ›NOAA and similar organizations' monthly atmospheric CO2 measurements showing whether 425 ppm → 440 ppm occurs by December 2029
- ›Economic growth and energy demand patterns, particularly in developing economies, affecting fossil fuel combustion rates
- ›Policy effectiveness in major emitter nations regarding emissions reduction versus baseline projections
- ›Natural climate variability (e.g., volcanic activity, ocean cycles) that could temporarily suppress or enhance measured atmospheric concentrations
What moved the line
- Aug 20At least 440↓35pp79→44¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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