Will the gold close price be above $4826.99 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KXGOLDMON-26APR3017-T4826.99 · closes Apr 30, 2026 · 17 days remaining
Price
Last
30¢
Bid
31¢
Ask
36¢
Spread
5¢
24h Volume
$100
Open Interest
$115
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 4108.8% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 1090.4% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 2 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | 12.000 | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 16.4% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 1085% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 1.35 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 2.6/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 4109% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
590 indicator snapshots · 3 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.625
Label
taker
Spread
5¢
Computed
4/13/2026, 3:09:20 PM
About this market
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on April 30, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is above 4826.99 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXGOLDMON-26APR3017-T4826.99 yes 100