Will Garrett Mason be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 83% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
83%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$373
1 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
136 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Robert Charles be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine
Will Robert Charles be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?: Robert Charles
KXGOVMENOMR-26-RCHA
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Garrett Mason will win the Republican primary nomination for Maine's gubernatorial race. At 37%, the market suggests Mason is a competitive but not dominant candidate in what appears to be an open or contested primary field. The probability level likely reflects factors such as Mason's current position within Maine Republican circles, his fundraising capacity relative to other candidates, and recent polling or endorsement patterns. The main catalysts affecting this probability would be candidate entry or withdrawal announcements, major primary campaign events, and any public polling data specific to the Maine Republican gubernatorial primary. The nomination will ultimately be determined at Maine's Republican state convention or through the primary election process scheduled for 2026.
- ›Mason's current name recognition and organizational support within Maine Republican Party structures
- ›Competition from other potential Republican candidates and their respective funding or endorsement levels
- ›Changes in candidate field composition (entries, withdrawals, or consolidation of support)
- ›Primary election rules and delegate allocation mechanisms specific to Maine Republican processes
- ›Polling data and grassroots activity metrics from Maine-focused surveys or campaign metrics
What moved the line
- Jun 14Robert Charles↑7pp89→96¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Robert Charles↓4pp97→93¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (83% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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