Will Chip Keating be the Republican nominee for Governor in Oklahoma
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 50% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
50%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$33K
2 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
131 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Genter Drummond be the Republican nominee for Governor in Oklahoma
Will Genter Drummond be the Republican nominee for Governor in Oklahoma?: Gentner Drummond
KXGOVOKNOMR-26-GDRU
Cluster 2
Will Mike Mazzei be the Republican nominee for Governor in Oklahoma
Will Mike Mazzei be the Republican nominee for Governor in Oklahoma?: Mike Mazzei
KXGOVOKNOMR-26-MMAZ
Analysis
This probability reflects market participants' assessment of whether Chip Keating will win the Republican nomination for Oklahoma Governor. The 24% probability indicates skepticism that he will be the party's standard-bearer, suggesting other candidates are viewed as more likely frontrunners. The nomination outcome depends primarily on candidate performance in any upcoming primary contests, endorsements from key Republican figures, and fundraising momentum heading into the election season. The critical catalyst will be the Oklahoma Republican primary election itself, where voters will ultimately determine the nominee. Between now and that vote, candidate campaign activity, polling data, and strategic endorsements from state party leadership will provide concrete signals about his viability.
- ›Primary election date and field size: outcomes depend on when Oklahoma's GOP primary occurs and how many viable Republican candidates compete for the nomination
- ›Candidate fundraising and organization: Keating's ability to raise funds and build campaign infrastructure relative to other Republican contenders will indicate his competitive position
- ›Endorsements from Oklahoma GOP leadership: support or opposition from sitting Republican officials and party insiders materially affects primary electability
- ›Polling data among Republican primary voters: direct measurement of Keating's standing compared to other candidates provides quantifiable evidence of nomination viability
- ›Turnout and demographic composition of primary electorate: the specific makeup and size of voters participating in the primary will determine which candidate coalition has structural advantages
What moved the line
- Jun 19Gentner Drummond↓4pp27→23¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Mike Mazzei↑4pp71→75¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Mike Mazzei↑3pp68→71¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (50% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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