Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before September 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 77% probability that Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above.... This contract trades at 77¢ on Kalshi, closing September 1, 2026. The market is pricing in a 76% probability that transit calls will exceed 60, but the dramatically skewed yield structure—with No contracts offering 682% annualized return versus 103% for Yes—suggests significant tail risk that the market may be underpricing a potential shock to shipping through the Strait.
Analysis
The market is pricing in a 76% probability that transit calls will exceed 60, but the dramatically skewed yield structure—with No contracts offering 682% annualized return versus 103% for Yes—suggests significant tail risk that the market may be underpricing a potential shock to shipping through the Strait. With 138 days to resolution and realized volatility at 322%, the recent 8-cent price climb (64¢ to 72¢) combined with a 3.12 vol ratio indicates elevated uncertainty, though the neutral regime and modest 1.9/hour info arrival rate suggest this isn't driven by imminent breaking news.
Resolution rules
If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before September 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260901 yes 100