Will legislation that funds ICE's Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO) become law before Jul 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 86% probability that Will legislation that funds ICE's Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO) become law before Jul 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 86¢ on Kalshi, closing July 1, 2026. The market has surged 17 cents over seven days to 66¢, reflecting increased conviction that ERO funding legislation will pass before the July 2026 deadline, though the $0 24-hour volume and minimal $1,484.25 open interest suggest thin liquidity that could amplify price swings.
Analysis
The market has surged 17 cents over seven days to 66¢, reflecting increased conviction that ERO funding legislation will pass before the July 2026 deadline, though the $0 24-hour volume and minimal $1,484.25 open interest suggest thin liquidity that could amplify price swings. The asymmetric implied yields—269.8% for Yes versus 930.5% for No—indicate the market is pricing in a substantial probability shift, with the No side offering outsized returns reflecting its lower likelihood. With 73 days to expiry and a low Cliff Risk Index of 2, the market appears relatively stable, but traders should note the illiquidity could make position entry or exit challenging at the current price.
Resolution rules
If legislation that funds ICE's Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO) has become law before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXICEERO-26MAR-JUL01 yes 100