Will Patrick McAuley be the Republican nominee for IN-07?
KXINPRIMARY-07R26-PMCA · closes Nov 3, 2027 · 569 days remaining
Price
Last
77¢
Bid
71¢
Ask
97¢
Spread
26¢
24h Volume
$234.73
Open Interest
$792.73
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 26.2% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 157.1% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 2 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | — | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 406% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 8.33 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 0.3/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 157% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
53 indicator snapshots · 3 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.5
Label
neutral
Spread
26¢
Computed
4/13/2026, 4:33:02 PM
About this market
If Patrick McAuley wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 IN-07 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXINPRIMARY-07R26-PMCA yes 100