Will Tim Peck be the Democratic nominee for IN-09?
KXINPRIMARY-09D26-TPEC · closes Nov 3, 2027 · 569 days remaining
Price
Last
93¢
Bid
88¢
Ask
93¢
Spread
5¢
24h Volume
$100
Open Interest
$544
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 8.7% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 470.5% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 7 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | — | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | — | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | — | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | — | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 235% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
5 indicator snapshots · 2 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.409
Label
neutral
Spread
5¢
Computed
4/13/2026, 4:32:04 PM
About this market
If Tim Peck wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 IN-09 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXINPRIMARY-09D26-TPEC yes 100