Will the S&P 500 be below 6475 on Apr 17, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
KXINX-26APR17H1600-T6475 · closes Apr 17, 2026 · 4 days remaining
Price
Last
3¢
Bid
2¢
Ask
4¢
Spread
2¢
24h Volume
$967
Open Interest
$4,539
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | >100,000% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 274.7% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 32 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | -0.1% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 5094% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 1.72 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 1.1/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 100000% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
50 indicator snapshots · 0 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.5
Label
neutral
Spread
2¢
Computed
4/13/2026, 6:04:11 PM
About this market
If the end-of-day S&P 500 index value on April 17, 2026 is below 6475, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXINX-26APR17H1600-T6475 yes 100