Will the S&P 500 be above 6824.9999 on Apr 13, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
KXINXU-26APR13H1600-T6824.9999 · closes Apr 13, 2026 · 0 days remaining
Price
Last
53¢
Bid
49¢
Ask
53¢
Spread
4¢
24h Volume
$13,687
Open Interest
$12,108
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | — | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | — | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 1 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 9.3% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.06 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 5263% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 0.47 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 4.9/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 94000% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
281 indicator snapshots · 3 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.5
Label
neutral
Spread
4¢
Computed
4/13/2026, 3:16:25 PM
About this market
If the end-of-day S&P 500 index value on April 13, 2026 is above 6824.9999, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXINXU-26APR13H1600-T6824.9999 yes 100