When will SpaceX IPO?
Prediction markets currently give a 91% probability that When will SpaceX IPO?. This contract trades at 91¢ on Kalshi, closing November 1, 2026. The market is pricing in a highly confident 86% probability of a SpaceX IPO by November 2026, yet shows concerning illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $21,975 in open interest and a modest 3¢ spread.
Analysis
The market is pricing in a highly confident 86% probability of a SpaceX IPO by November 2026, yet shows concerning illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $21,975 in open interest and a modest 3¢ spread. The asymmetric implied yields—25.1% for Yes versus 1350% for No—suggest the No position is severely underpriced relative to tail risk, indicating potential mispricing or that the market lacks sufficient capital to arbitrage the extreme disparity. Recent price movement from 90¢ to 86¢ over seven days shows modest downward pressure, and with 198 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 7, this contract faces meaningful execution risk if no IPO announcement materializes closer to the deadline.
Resolution rules
If SpaceX confirms an IPO before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXIPOSPACEX-26NOV01 yes 100