Will Filip Peliwo win the Ryan Ziegann vs Peliwo: M25 Anning Semifinal match?

99¢

Bid/Ask 99/100¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $83,478.89·OI $57,502.65·Closes Apr 18, 2026·14d remaining

KXITFMATCH-26APR18RYAPEL-PEL

7-day price43 snapshots · 4 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market shows extreme mispricing with Filip Peliwo trading at 89¢ despite only $1,421 in 24-hour volume and thin liquidity ($1,206 open interest), creating a massive 12,782% risk-adjusted implied yield on the No side. The price has collapsed 6 cents over seven days while realized volatility exploded to 41,731%, suggesting either new information about Peliwo's fitness or a liquidity crunch driving the sharp move. With 14 days to expiration and an information arrival rate of 3.1 events per hour, this low-liquidity market is vulnerable to further repricing as match details emerge.

Resolution rules

If Filip Peliwo wins the Ryan Ziegann vs Peliwo professional tennis match in the 2026 M25 Anning Semifinal after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1239.4%

IY (No) 5596.5%

Adj IY 5185%

CRI 2

RV 37979%

VR 15.14

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1239.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	5596.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	5185%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	37979%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	15.14	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	4.5/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
LAS	0.07	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/18/2026, 10:46:05 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/18/2026, 10:23:21 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXITFMATCH-26APR18RYAPEL-PEL yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →