Will Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q1 2026 be above -1%?
Prediction markets currently give a 95% probability that Will Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q1 2026 be above -1%?. This contract trades at 95¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the astronomical 27,736% implied yield on the "No" side.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the astronomical 27,736% implied yield on the "No" side. With only 13 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 10, the market is highly vulnerable to late-moving data, particularly Italy's official Q1 2026 GDP release which typically comes in late April/early May. The resolution criteria appear incomplete in the provided text, creating additional uncertainty about what threshold actually triggers a "Yes" outcome.
Resolution rules
If Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q1 2026 is above -1 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXITGDPYOYA-26APR30-T-1 yes 100