Hiroshima vs V-Varen Winner?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 1¢ price implying just 1% probability for a tie outcome, yet the Yes implied yield of 23,545% signals severe undervaluation relative to historical soccer tie frequencies (typically 20-30% in J1 League). The sharp 75% price collapse over seven days (from 4¢ to 1¢) combined with high realized volatility of 1,922% and a cliff risk index of 9 suggests either late-breaking information about team lineups or a liquidity crisis, though the $39,430 24-hour volume indicates active trading despite the thin $28,010 open interest. With only 14 days to expiry and an information arrival rate of 1.7 events per hour, this market appears to be pricing in an unusually decisive matchup, but the extreme yield and recent price action warrant caution about whether this reflects genuine edge or market dysfunction.

Resolution rules

If Tie wins the Hiroshima vs V-Varen professional Japan J1 League soccer game originally scheduled for Apr 18, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade