Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leave President of Brazil before Jan 1, 2027?
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-LSILBRA · closes Jan 2, 2027 · 264 days remaining
Price
Last
29¢
Bid
24¢
Ask
29¢
Spread
5¢
24h Volume
$1,724.68
Open Interest
$12,700.11
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 438.6% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 43.7% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 3 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 4.8% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.04 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 984% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 3.80 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 1.7/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 420% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
73 indicator snapshots · 1 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.5
Label
neutral
Spread
5¢
Computed
4/13/2026, 3:12:55 PM
About this market
If Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has either officially announced their intention to leave as President of Brazil or has actually left President of Brazil before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-LSILBRA yes 100