Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jun 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 22% probability that Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jun 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 22¢ on Kalshi, closing June 1, 2026. The market is pricing Powell's departure at just 30% despite an extraordinarily high implied yield of 2,077% on the Yes side, suggesting either severe underpricing or extreme tail-risk hedging demand with minimal conviction.
Analysis
The market is pricing Powell's departure at just 30% despite an extraordinarily high implied yield of 2,077% on the Yes side, suggesting either severe underpricing or extreme tail-risk hedging demand with minimal conviction. Price has declined sharply from 35¢ to 28¢ over seven days amid low 24-hour volume of $5,312, indicating thin liquidity and potential vulnerability to large orders, while the 305% realized volatility and cliff risk index of 3 signal this contract experiences significant price swings near expiration. With only 45 days remaining and Powell's term extending well beyond June 2026 under normal circumstances, the market appears to be pricing in only extraordinary scenarios (health emergency, resignation, or unexpected policy crisis), making this a pure tail-risk bet rather than a mainstream probability assessment.
Resolution rules
If Jerome Powell has either officially announced their intention to leave as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or has actually left as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Edges (2)
Trade
sf trade KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26AUG01-JUN yes 100