Lille wins by over 1.5 goals?
KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26APR18LILNIC-LIL1 · closes May 2, 2026 · 19 days remaining
Price
Last
36¢
Bid
33¢
Ask
35¢
Spread
2¢
24h Volume
$485
Open Interest
$485
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 3866.9% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 938.1% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 2 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | — | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.06 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 430% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 0.59 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 0.8/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 3633% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
53 indicator snapshots · 1 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.5
Label
neutral
Spread
2¢
Computed
4/13/2026, 3:16:27 PM
About this market
If Lille wins by more than 1.5 goals in the Lille vs Nice professional Ligue 1 soccer game originally scheduled for Apr 18, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXLIGUE1SPREAD-26APR18LILNIC-LIL1 yes 100