Arizona wins first 5 innings by over 1.5 runs?
KXMLBF5SPREAD-26APR131835AZBAL-AZ2 · closes Apr 16, 2026 · 3 days remaining
Price
Last
6¢
Bid
24¢
Ask
29¢
Spread
5¢
24h Volume
$1
Open Interest
$1
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 41487.2% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 4137.2% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 3 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | -0.2% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 3937% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 0.59 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 2.2/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 41487% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
36 indicator snapshots · 1 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.5
Label
neutral
Spread
5¢
Computed
4/13/2026, 7:17:41 PM
About this market
If Arizona wins by more than 1.5 runs in the first 5 innings of the Arizona vs Baltimore professional baseball game originally scheduled for Apr 13, 2026 at 6:35 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXMLBF5SPREAD-26APR131835AZBAL-AZ2 yes 100