Ketel Marte: 1+ home runs?
KXMLBHR-26APR131835AZBAL-AZKMARTE4-1 · closes Apr 16, 2026 · 3 days remaining
Price
Last
19¢
Bid
18¢
Ask
19¢
Spread
1¢
24h Volume
$11,313
Open Interest
$11,362
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 57337.2% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 2762.8% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 5 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | -0.2% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.06 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 3136% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 0.94 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 1.6/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 54149% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
19 indicator snapshots · 2 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.5
Label
neutral
Spread
1¢
Computed
4/13/2026, 4:37:43 PM
About this market
If Ketel Marte records 1+ home runs in Arizona vs Baltimore professional baseball game originally scheduled for Apr 13, 2026 at 6:35 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXMLBHR-26APR131835AZBAL-AZKMARTE4-1 yes 100