Matthew Liberatore: 4+ strikeouts?
KXMLBKS-26APR131945CLESTL-STLMLIBERATORE32-4 · closes Apr 16, 2026 · 3 days remaining
Price
Last
54¢
Bid
52¢
Ask
54¢
Spread
2¢
24h Volume
$247
Open Interest
$351
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 11409.5% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 13390.3% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 1 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 5.5% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 2798% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 1.46 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 1.2/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 13390% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
15 indicator snapshots · 0 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.5
Label
neutral
Spread
2¢
Computed
4/13/2026, 3:16:00 PM
About this market
If Matthew Liberatore records 4+ strikeouts in the Cleveland vs St. Louis professional baseball game originally scheduled for Apr 13, 2026 at 7:45 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXMLBKS-26APR131945CLESTL-STLMLIBERATORE32-4 yes 100