Will Willson Contreras record 30+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?
KXMLBSEASONHR-26C30-WCONTRERAS40 · closes Oct 3, 2026 · 173 days remaining
Price
Last
85¢
Bid
0¢
Ask
85¢
Spread
85¢
24h Volume
$58
Open Interest
$564
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 37.3% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 1196.7% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 6 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 13.5% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | — | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | — | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | — | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 598% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
3 indicator snapshots · 0 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.5
Label
neutral
Spread
85¢
Computed
4/13/2026, 6:01:33 PM
About this market
If Willson Contreras records 30+ home runs across all games during the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXMLBSEASONHR-26C30-WCONTRERAS40 yes 100