Philadelphia wins by over 1.5 runs?
KXMLBSPREAD-26APR131840CHCPHI-PHI2 · closes Apr 16, 2026 · 3 days remaining
Price
Last
44¢
Bid
43¢
Ask
44¢
Spread
1¢
24h Volume
$9,777
Open Interest
$8,415
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 16384.6% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 9324.4% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 1 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 0.6% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.02 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 229% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 0.18 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 1.1/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 9655% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
15 indicator snapshots · 7 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.5
Label
neutral
Spread
1¢
Computed
4/13/2026, 3:16:36 PM
About this market
If Philadelphia wins by more than 1.5 runs in the Chicago C vs Philadelphia professional baseball game originally scheduled for Apr 13, 2026 at 6:40 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXMLBSPREAD-26APR131840CHCPHI-PHI2 yes 100