Pittsburgh wins by over 1.5 runs?
KXMLBSPREAD-26APR131840WSHPIT-PIT2 · closes Apr 16, 2026 · 3 days remaining
Price
Last
48¢
Bid
46¢
Ask
48¢
Spread
2¢
24h Volume
$32,020
Open Interest
$28,153
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 14775.1% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 10721.6% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 1 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 0.5% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.04 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 174% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 0.14 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 0.7/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 6831% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
11 indicator snapshots · 9 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.5
Label
neutral
Spread
2¢
Computed
4/13/2026, 4:35:36 PM
About this market
If Pittsburgh wins by more than 1.5 runs in the Washington vs Pittsburgh professional baseball game originally scheduled for Apr 13, 2026 at 6:40 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXMLBSPREAD-26APR131840WSHPIT-PIT2 yes 100