Will Tyrese Maxey be selected to the 2025-26 All-Pro Basketball 3rd Team?

67¢

Bid/Ask 50/67¢·Spread 17¢·Vol $5·OI $600.41·Closes Jun 30, 2026·74d remaining

KXNBA3RDTEAM-26-TMAX

7-day price15 snapshots · 4 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility despite a 67% Yes price, with only $5 in 24-hour volume and a massive 17¢ spread that creates significant execution friction. The realized volatility of 1834% and dramatic 7-day price swing from 2¢ to 50¢ suggest thin order books are being moved by minimal trading activity, making the 496% implied yield largely theoretical given the difficulty of actually trading at posted prices. With 74 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 1, this market is better suited for directional conviction bets than yield-seeking strategies, as the wide bid-ask gap and low open interest of $600 mean any position entry or exit could significantly impact execution prices.

Resolution rules

If Tyrese Maxey is selected to the 2025-26 All-Pro Basketball 3rd Team, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 495.9%

IY (No) 495.9%

Adj IY 496%

CRI 1

RV 1834%

VR 10.59

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	495.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	495.9%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	496%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1834%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	10.59	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.4/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	3.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

17¢

Computed

4/17/2026, 11:44:04 PM

Indicators computed 4/17/2026, 11:38:51 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNBA3RDTEAM-26-TMAX yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →