Will Zack Gelof win the 2026 AL Comeback Player of the Year award?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1.17M open interest, suggesting the OI figure may be stale or positions are locked in. The 44-cent spread combined with a 497% implied yield on the yes side indicates severe mispricing risk, likely reflecting the thin order book rather than genuine probability assessment. The price has collapsed 43% over seven days (from 40¢ to 23¢) amid near-zero trading activity, raising questions about whether this reflects new information about Gelof's injury recovery prospects or simply represents an illiquid market finding a new equilibrium.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Comeback Player of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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