Game 1: Atlanta at New York: Spread

The market has experienced explosive price appreciation, surging 29 cents over seven days to 81¢, reflecting either genuine information arrival (1.8 events/hour) or potential mispricing given the extreme implied yields exceeding 2400% on both sides. With just 14 days to expiry and relatively modest $190k daily volume against $114k open interest, liquidity appears constrained for a market exhibiting 2026% realized volatility and a vol ratio of 4.8x, suggesting significant tail risk or model instability near resolution. The tight 2¢ bid-ask spread belies the underlying uncertainty, and the cliff risk index of 1 indicates potential for sharp repricing as the April 18 game date approaches.

Resolution rules

If the teams in the Atlanta at New York professional basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 18, 2026 collectively score more than 207.5 points, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade