Will Caleb Downs be drafted by Dallas?
KXNFLDRAFTTEAM-26CDOW-DAL · closes May 3, 2026 · 20 days remaining
Price
Last
19¢
Bid
12¢
Ask
59¢
Spread
47¢
24h Volume
$460
Open Interest
$3,657
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 13414.9% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 249.4% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 7 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 0.4% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 2611% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 2.63 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 7.4/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 13415% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
507 indicator snapshots · 4 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.409
Label
neutral
Spread
47¢
Computed
4/13/2026, 3:11:19 PM
About this market
If Caleb Downs is selected by Dallas in the 2026 Pro Football Draft, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXNFLDRAFTTEAM-26CDOW-DAL yes 100