Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 2.0% in Q1 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above 2.0% in Q1 2026?. This contract trades at 14¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme distress signals with zero 24-hour volume despite a massive 16,645% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 20¢ price is likely stale and unrepresentative of true market consensus.
Analysis
This market shows extreme distress signals with zero 24-hour volume despite a massive 16,645% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 20¢ price is likely stale and unrepresentative of true market consensus. The sharp 5¢ price decline over seven days combined with a 421% realized volatility and elevated cliff risk index (6/10) indicates significant uncertainty, though the approaching April 30 expiry (13 days) means Q1 2026 GDP data should resolve this within weeks of market close. The asymmetric yield profile and thin $4,182 open interest suggest this is an illiquid, potentially mispriced contract where the true probability of nominal GDP growth exceeding 2.0% is likely substantially higher than the 20¢ quote implies.
Resolution rules
If the percent change in U.S. nominal GDP in Q1 2026, rounded to the nearest one-hundredth of a percent according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis’s Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) series, is above 2.0, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Trade
sf trade KXNGDPQ-26Q1-C6.0 yes 100