Sebastian Aho: 1+ goals

92¢

Bid/Ask 0/92¢·Spread 92¢·Vol $1,051.81·OI $1,051.81·Closes Apr 18, 2026·14d remaining

KXNHLGOAL-26APR18OTTCAR-CARSAHO20-1

7-day price3 snapshots · 5 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

Sebastian Aho is priced at an extremely high 92¢ with a massive 43-cent rally over seven days, suggesting strong conviction that he'll score against Ottawa on April 18th. The 92-cent spread and minimal $1,051.81 liquidity indicate thin trading, while the astronomical 13,775% implied yield on "No" reflects the market's near-certainty pricing—a classic sign of overconfidence in a binary sports outcome. With just 14 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 5, this market carries meaningful execution risk despite the lopsided probability.

Resolution rules

If Sebastian Aho records at least 1+ goals in the OTT Senators vs CAR Hurricanes professional hockey game originally scheduled for Apr 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 228.5%

IY (No) 30219.6%

Adj IY 0%

CRI 12

Overround 2.7%

LAS 1.00

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	228.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	30219.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	0%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	12	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	2.7%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	1.00	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

92¢

Computed

4/18/2026, 10:42:18 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/18/2026, 9:38:22 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNHLGOAL-26APR18OTTCAR-CARSAHO20-1 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →