Will above 0 jobs be added in August 2026?
KXPAYROLLS-26AUG-T0 · closes Sep 4, 2026 · 144 days remaining
Price
Last
81¢
Bid
79¢
Ask
86¢
Spread
7¢
24h Volume
$0
Open Interest
$159
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 67.4% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 953.3% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 4 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 5.6% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | — | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | — | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | — | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 477% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
7 indicator snapshots · 3 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.5
Label
neutral
Spread
7¢
Computed
4/13/2026, 11:46:47 AM
About this market
If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above 0 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of August 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXPAYROLLS-26AUG-T0 yes 100