Will above 40000 jobs be added in June 2026?
KXPAYROLLS-26JUN-T40000 · closes Jul 2, 2026 · 80 days remaining
Price
Last
48¢
Bid
47¢
Ask
52¢
Spread
5¢
24h Volume
$0
Open Interest
$0
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 515.2% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 405.2% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 1 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 4.7% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | — | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | — | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | — | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 258% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
1 indicator snapshots · 3 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.5
Label
neutral
Spread
5¢
Computed
4/13/2026, 3:14:11 PM
About this market
If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above 40000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXPAYROLLS-26JUN-T40000 yes 100