Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.3% in July 2026?
KXPCECORE-26JUL-T0.3 · closes Aug 26, 2026 · 135 days remaining
Price
Last
19¢
Bid
19¢
Ask
23¢
Spread
4¢
24h Volume
$0
Open Interest
$250
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 1154.1% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 63.5% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 4 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 1.3% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | — | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | — | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | — | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 577% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
2 indicator snapshots · 3 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.568
Label
neutral
Spread
4¢
Computed
4/13/2026, 4:31:06 PM
About this market
If the (single-decimal) month-over-month percent change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy is above 0.3% in July 2026 according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXPCECORE-26JUL-T0.3 yes 100