Will Patrick Schmidt be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Kansas?
Prediction markets currently give a 15% probability that Will Patrick Schmidt be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Kansas?. This contract trades at 15¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows a notable 300-basis-point price gap between Kalshi (6¢) and Polymarket (9¢), suggesting potential arbitrage opportunity favoring the Polymarket price.
Analysis
This market shows a notable 300-basis-point price gap between Kalshi (6¢) and Polymarket (9¢), suggesting potential arbitrage opportunity favoring the Polymarket price. The 10¢ spread on Kalshi is exceptionally wide relative to the 6¢ mid-price, indicating severe illiquidity with only $301 open interest and zero 24-hour volume. The 2026 Democratic nomination process remains distant enough that the flat 7-day price action and neutral regime score suggest minimal conviction either way, making this a speculative position with execution risk on the lower-liquidity venue.
Also on polymarket at 25¢(Δ -10¢)
Resolution rules
If Patrick Schmidt wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class II Kansas Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSENATEKSD-26-PSCH yes 100