Will Patrick Schmidt be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Kansas
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 39% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
39%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$29
2 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
496 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Adam Hamilton be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Kansas
Will Adam Hamilton be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Kansas?: Adam Hamilton
KXSENATEKSD-26-AHAM
Cluster 2
Will Patrick Schmidt be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Kansas
Will Patrick Schmidt be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Kansas?: Patrick Schmidt
KXSENATEKSD-26-PSCH
Analysis
This probability represents the chance that Patrick Schmidt wins the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate seat in Kansas. At 6%, markets currently view Schmidt as an unlikely nominee choice relative to other potential Democratic candidates. The low probability reflects Kansas's strong Republican lean—the state has voted Republican in recent presidential elections and holds a Republican Senate seat—which typically makes Democratic nominations less competitive at the statewide level. Key factors affecting this probability include Schmidt's current political standing and name recognition in Kansas, the strength of competing Democratic candidates for the nomination, and whether any major shifts in the state's political dynamics occur. The 2026 Senate election timeline will be the critical catalyst for resolution, with the primary election serving as the definitive test of whether Schmidt can secure the Democratic nomination.
- ›Kansas's Republican lean in recent election cycles, making any Democratic statewide nominee a long-shot in the general election
- ›The competitiveness of the Democratic primary race and whether other candidates with higher name recognition or establishment support enter the race
- ›Schmidt's baseline political experience, fundraising capacity, and organizational strength relative to other potential Democratic nominees
- ›Timing of the Democratic primary election and any endorsements or institutional support that could shift momentum
- ›Recent voting trends in Kansas Democratic primaries and whether turnout or demographic shifts create new opportunities
What moved the line
- Jun 20Adam Hamilton↓3pp77→74¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Senate Judiciary Committee holds a hearing for, or votes to report, a district-court or U.S.-attorney nomination associated with a state where a sitting home-state senator has not returned an affirmative blue slip before Jan 1, 2028last 35% · 1d
- Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-1last 4% · 1d
- Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02last 47% · 1d
- Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17last 45% · 1d
- Will Christopher Gallant be the Democratic nominee for NY-01last 16% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (39% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
Democrats Firming as Favorites to Hold House in 2026
Democrats have strengthened their position to retain control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterms, with contracts rising to 78¢. This shift comes amid strong fundraising and favorable special election results, challenging the historical midterm penalty for the president's party. The Senate race remains a toss-up, with Republicans at 57¢ to take control.
Democratic House Control Strongly Favored at 78¢
Traders are pricing in a 78% probability that Democrats will win control of the House in 2026, while the Senate remains a toss-up with Republicans at 57¢. This balance of power scenario is a key input for midterm election trading strategies.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.